The outlook for Caribbean tourism this year is “mixed, with those depending on the US markets having better prospects than those accessing the bulk of their business from Europe,” reports the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO).

Tourism arrivals in nearly two dozen Caribbean countries have shown an overall increase of 4 ½ percent for the first four months of 2010, CTO said in its recently released “State of Caribbean Tourism” review.

The US market produced 6 ½ percent more arrivals over the same period last year, while the Canadian market was down one percent. Europe declined by 4 1/3 percent for the six-month period, and was not expected to improve since the Euros’ current value, some 25 percent below the US dollar, would make it more expensive for European visitors to come to the region, and “Those countries heavily dependent on the European market are in for a bumpy ride as in light of the current European economic realities,” said the CTO.

The OECS countries, which suffered an overall 12.3% decline in 2009, had a “moderate recovery” of 3.3 percent in the first quarter of 2010, driven mainly by increases in St. Lucia and, to a lesser extent, Antigua and Barbuda.

Barbados and the larger CARICOM countries did a bit better, recording over 5% increase in traffic for the first four months with Jamaica leading with just under 10 percent growth, reported the CTO.

The Dutch Caribbean Territories showed a marginal rise in arrivals, driven mostly by St. Maarten and Aruba. 

However, Cuba’s tourism was flat during the first four months (0% change in arrivals over the same period last year), due mainly to the slowdown in Canadian and European travel. The Dominican Republic showed a slight rise (2.0%), while Puerto Rico enjoyed an 8.8% increase and the USVI, 11.5%.

Cruise visitor arrivals to the region as a whole increased 4.5%, and “Further increases are to be expected as improved advance bookings are reportedly very promising, as the cruise lines strive to satisfy their increased capacity,” noted the CTO.

Due to the fall-off in arrivals, there was a 4.1 percent drop in hotel occupancy across the region in 2009, averaging 61.6% for the year. “The good news,” said the CTO, “is that they have started to rise (over 7%) again in the first quarter of 2010.”

The Average Daily Room Rate also increased in the Caribbean by over 7% in the first quarter of 2010, while Revenue Per Available Room rose by over 6%.

Meanwhile, major airlines struggled to sustain profitability. “Airlift has continued to be juggled and adjusted in an effort to balance supply and demand,” said the CTO, adding, “The coming of the low cost carrier Jet Blue has also added much welcomed seating capacity.”

The CTO said that while there was “very little hard information” on visitor spending across the Caribbean, it was clear that there had been a fall in average spending.